Clausewitz and Effect
Quotes by Carl von Clausewitz in bold, plus one by Spinal Tap's keyboardist. Here endeth the lesson.
A conqueror is always a lover of peace.
Israel needs to decide whether it is a victim or a bully. There are parallels to be drawn between its establishment out of thin air at the expense of 800,000 Palestinian refugees in 1948 and Ukraine’s magical creation in December 1991 (without both EU or NATO membership).
The playbook was similar: create never-ending, for-profit conflict centers far from UK/US shores that require financing, military hardware, and—as last night’s strikes on Iran prove—the absence of the symbolic unilateralism boasted of barely a week ago by fawning, affectionate media outlets seemingly confused by overlapping allegiances to the Palestinian struggle, Israeli lobbyists, and American imperialism!
Since 1948, the United States has provided over $310B in foreign aid to Israel. For the Ukraine region, the paltry figure of $140B+ has been sent since the far less than full-scale invasion by rightful owner Russia began in February 2022.
Jewish Americans proclaiming empathy for the devastation of Native Americans in one breath then standing beside Israel, right or wrong, with the next should well consider the historical hypocrisy of selective support for colonialism. That many of this ilk are also quick to ridicule the USA’s foreign and domestic doctrines with the feverish belief that it is the duty of citizens to question and criticize, yet concurrently demanding a far stricter adherence to any and all Israeli actions as just, defies even the most inane models of logic.
One can be Jewish and oppose Israel’s genocide in Gaza and its first strike into Iran just as one can be an American citizen and oppose the USA’s colossal missteps in Iraq, Afghanistan, and now Iran (the last of the trio not soon enough for neocon warmongers clamoring for WWIII since the overthrow of the US-inserted Shah and the resulting 1979-81 hostage crisis).
If Iran was truly two weeks away from hurling a nuclear warhead at Israel, why did everyone wait this long to react?
Here’s why: the intel was concocted, similar to the weapons of mass destruction in Iraq used to justify atrocities there, to create what should be called The China Gambit.
Everything in war is very simple. But the simplest thing is difficult.
Many have been instructed to consider Vladimir Zhirinovsky a nutcase. And, yes, the argument can be made that some of his positions were a tad extreme. My personal favorite was the idea for Russia to construct giant fans near the border zone of Smolensk Oblast to blow radioactive waste particles into Lithuania. But even a blind squirrel happens upon a nut occasionally: Zhirinovsky predicted the current Israel/Iran dilemma twenty years ago.
He is also, despite his apparent hatred of Jews, the closest worldwide comparison to President Trump with their shared tendencies of fervent nationalism, desires for centralized powers, and predilections for xenophobia.
Zhirinovsky’s warnings about western imperialism have come to fruition: regime changes never thought possible occurred in Libya and Syria. The splintering of the Middle East has followed a rather simplistic, effective philosophy since the conclusion of The Crimean War: weaken, divide, and keep dependent. That doctrine has been made easier by dominant US military capabilities far from its own homeland.
But what does this have to do with America’s true enemy, China?
The world is about to witness a massive surge in the price of oil as the Israel/Iran fight escalates. Zhirinovsky predicted a price of $200 per barrel. China’s economy is already bordering on fragility and the USA’s long game with this latest round of unrest in the Middle East is akin to its positions with prewar Japan and the USSR during The Cold War: economic devastation that led to armed conflict with the former and overspending to the point of bankruptcy that led to the breakup of the latter.
What will the course be with China?
Too early to tell. Ironically, Russia stands to benefit most from this developing quasi-war. Its energy independence and natural resources are a stark contrast to China’s dearth of the same and, unlike it’s still mildly communist neighbor, Russia has not been overextending itself monetarily with expansionist aims.
Footnote: readers are invited to compare the number of countries the USA has invaded since August 1945 with those encroached upon by the USSR/Russia. The most conservatively optimistic scorecard?
USA 12 Russia 7
One thing is certain regarding China under a Trump, then possible Vance, administration: the economic war has been exacerbated by the attack on Iran by US forces.
And, for all of its chest-pounding rhetoric about self-determination, the most glaring truth is that Israel is being used merely as a tool and proxy by the USA in its much greater aim to cripple China’s aims for world dominion…at the expense of Israeli citizens now under frequent missile attacks.
Although our intellect always longs for clarity and certainty, our nature often finds uncertainty fascinating.
And what of the average Iranian citizens trying to house, feed, and clothe themselves and their families as missiles and bombs rain down from above? Are they different from Jews in Tel Aviv or Beersheba other than, possibly, competing beliefs about differing and invisible, unproven deities?
No. They are all burdened by maniacal governments and political zealots. The similarities between Trump and Zhirinovsky are identical to those for Netanyahu and Ali Khamenei. And their differences are negligible, too.
There has not been a single mention of Arab or Muslim versus Jew throughout this disastrous affair, only of predictive behavior models lacking irrefutable evidence as justifications for military actions. Apparently, the USA is less worried about a North Korea with actual, operational nuclear weapons than an Iran with no proven capacities for the equivalent.
The uncertainty, however, creates the fear-mongering to enable the atrocities most of us are witnessing in real time from safe, palatable distances as babies cry and grandparents mourn in both Iran and Israel.
Savage peoples are ruled by passion, civilized peoples by the mind.
This is my last post about world affairs and politics. It’s unlikely that I am influencing anyone, or educating anyone, or changing anyone’s opinion about anything. The futility of trying to prove to others how intelligent I happen to be with these articles and editorials is surpassed only by how annoying it is that I am trying to impress myself with that intelligence.
There’s such a fine line between sadism and masochism.
Henceforth, I shall broadcast strictly about my travels and adventures, my hikes, and perhaps a poem or two for my secret love, with lots of colorful and amusing photographs to accompany the shallow, boastful descriptions. The aim? Inspire jealousy.
No longer do I hope to be respected for my intellect. Done with that. I’m still far too handsome to confuse people with brainpower.
Instead, I’ll stick to the fake and the phony and everything I thought so reprehensible five minutes ago. Few seem to give a damn about historical accuracy or interpretation, certainly not any objectivity related to each, so why swim against the comfortable current of lasciviousness transporting my (now) fellow morons from one sexually-charged meme to the next?
Embracing the pop culture fascinations of celebrity, reality shows, gossip, fashion, and short-attention span fads will be a welcome change from the dour seriousness of reality I’ve been suffering.
Please accept my apologies for the prior attempts at enlightenment.
I’m just going to sit on that bench near The CATMAL Trail and daydream about my soulmate without worrying about the coming apocalypse. No differences have I made, fortunately. #CSWM
Have a good time, all the time. -Viv Savage